Public learning examples · Educational explanations, not current investment recommendations.
Reusable decision tools.
Concentration Without Fragility
The consequences of a thesis must fit the strength of the evidence and the ability to survive an adverse outcome.
Intraday → Swing → Secular
Keep the horizon explicit. A short-term price move and a long-term business thesis answer different questions.
Expectations vs Valuation
A good business can face demanding expectations. Test what the price already requires.
Explicit Falsification
Name the evidence that would materially weaken or break the thesis before the test arrives.
Five-Input Research Process
A repeatable process for separating research inputs and testing the assumptions behind an investment decision.
01 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Financial Modeling
Connect operating assumptions to financial statements and cash generation.
Map revenue, margins, working capital and reinvestment. Check that the balance sheet balances and that cash flow reconciles. Keep assumptions separate from historical observations.
Read a related sample note ↗02 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
DCF
Translate a business narrative into a range of cash-flow outcomes.
Start with operating cash generation and its durability. Test the discount rate, terminal assumptions and reinvestment together; label every scenario as an assumption.
Read a related sample note ↗03 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Valuation
Make the earnings period, claims and assumptions explicit.
Identify whether a valuation refers to enterprise or equity value. State the earnings period, reconcile debt and cash, and avoid comparing multiples built on different accounting bases.
Read a related sample note ↗04 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Expectations
Ask what business performance is already implied by a price.
Work backward from a stated valuation to the outcomes required to support it. Separate what is possible from what the price appears to require.
Read a related sample note ↗05 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Earnings Analysis
Separate reported results, guidance and analyst interpretation.
Read the dated primary release alongside the filing. Reconcile adjustments and cash conversion, and distinguish a recurring operating change from a one-time item.
Read a related sample note ↗06 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Market Structure
Read the aggregate through its underlying participants.
Compare concentration and breadth. State the observation window and avoid treating every price move as evidence about a long-term business thesis.
Read a related sample note ↗07 / RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
Research Process
Build an argument that can be checked, challenged and revised.
Record the source, observation date, interpretation and open question. Define falsification conditions before forming a strong view, then retain dated revisions.
Read a related sample note ↗